EXPERT ASSESSMENT OF BRAKING EFFICIENCY, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ABS/ESP AND THE ABSENCE OF SKID MARKS

К. В. Доля, А. М. Григорович

Abstract


This paper addresses the problem of evaluating braking effectiveness in accident reconstruction form odern vehicles equipped with ABS/ESC, where continuous locked-wheel skid marks are frequently absent at the crash scene. The lack of classical “skid” traces complicates conventional reconstruction techniq ues based on me as uring mark length and often leads to disputed claims regarding whether braking occurred and how effective it was. The physical reason for them is singmarksisthecy clic brake-pressure modulation performed by ABS/ESC, which keeps the wheels mostly rotating and maintains braking near an optimal slip region. Under such conditions, the expert assessment must shift from qualitative statements to a formal quantitative evaluation ground edin vehicle dynamics, tire–road interaction and an explicittreatment of uncertainty.

A combined methodology is proposed, consisting of: (1) an analytic stopping-distance model represented as the sum of reaction and braking components; (2) road-condition parameterization through the tire–road friction coefficient µ, and, when digital records area vailable (EDR/CAN/telematics), the option to estimate µ from dynamic signals; (3) a generalized representation of technical degradation of the braking system via a degradation factor ka ∈ (0,1) that reduces achievable mean deceleration even when ABS prevents wheel lock; and (4) probabilistic/interval reporting of results using Monte Carlo simulation, which yields distributions and quantile ranges of sΣ and the increment ∆sΣ between nominal and degraded scenarios in stead of a single “point” value. It is emphasized that, in practice, the dominant sources of uncertainty are the selection/variability of µ (pavement state, tire condition, local patches such as markings or wet film) and the total response/lag time tr.

A computational experiment ill us trate show degradation levels (ka= 1.00;0.85;0.70) affect the structure of stopping distance: the reaction component sr is independent of brake condition, while the braking component sb increases approximately in versely with ka. Presenting the out come as quantile intervals is shown to be more appropriate for expert reports under incomplete evidence and to explicitly reflect reconstruction un certainty. The scientific contribution of the work is a formalized integration of an analytic stopping model, a compact parameterization of brake condition influence through ka, and probabilistic output suitable for ABS/ESC cases with no continuous lockup traces.


Keywords


accident reconstruction; ABS; ESC; braking effectiveness; stop ping distance; friction co efficient; reaction time; Monte Carlo simulation; uncertainty; EDR/CAN

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32620/oikit.2026.108.09

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