CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES’ SAFETY ASSURANCE STRATEGIES WITH CONSIDERATION OF EMERGENT RISK

Е. В. Брежнев

Abstract


Critical infrastructures (CI, system of systems) are the basis of modern society. CI consists of interacting systems, which are combined for the realization of the objective function. Crashes and accidents in CI have a high severity of consequences. One of the causes of accidents (crashes) in CI is the imperfection of methods of risk analysis, particularly, neglecting of emergent risks (ER) related to negative interference between systems. There are two strategies of ER reducing in CI: off-line risk management and the redistribution of resources systems. The task of allocating resources of CI is formulated within the article and two additional strategies of reallocation are proposed. The main difference of these approaches is taking into account individual preferences of systems in CI. Redistribution takes placetaking into account (excluding) the capabilities of systems to reduce their ER and ensure the required safety performance values. The article gives a comparative analysis of the proposed strategies.

Keywords


critical infrastructure, security, redistribution of resources, emergent risks, interference.

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