ASSESSMENT OF THE EFFICIENCY OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION AS AN INDICATOR OF THE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Олена Володимирівна Гребенікова, Василь Олексійович Либа, Тетяна Володимирівна Денисова

Abstract


In the current context of economic transformation, where knowledge and innovation have become key factors of production, assessing the efficiency of innovation diffusion is gaining critical importance as an indicator of the development potential of socio-economic systems. The nonlinearity and complexity of innovation processes, territorial and sectoral unevenness of innovation development, as well as changes in the institutional environment, require the development of new methodological approaches to analyzing innovation diffusion. The purpose of the article is to develop a comprehensive methodological approach to assessing the efficiency of innovation diffusion (EDI) of socio-economic systems, which takes into account the specifics of the national context, identifies key determinants of innovation implementation, and forms an integral EDI index as an indicator of a country's development potential. The object of the research is the process of effective innovation diffusion in the socio-economic systems of different countries. Methods used in the study: cluster and correlation analysis, integral assessment, comparative analysis, and graphical methods. The main hypothesis of the study is that the assumption that the efficiency of innovation diffusion largely determines the potential for sustainable socio-economic development of the country, and that the integral index of the EDI can serve as a reliable prognostic indicator. Presenting main material. The authors have developed a model for assessing the efficiency of innovation diffusion based on the integral index, which takes into account a system of indicators with mathematically justified weighting coefficients. According to the results of a cluster analysis conducted for 35 countries over the period 2014-2024, three groups were identified by the level of efficiency of innovation diffusion. The dynamics of the EDI index and its relationship with the Global Innovation Index and the Innovation Efficiency Index were studied. Strong correlations were established between the EDI, available innovation resources and achieved results. A detailed study of six representative countries from different clusters (France, Germany, Spain, Estonia, Turkey, Ukraine) showed that during the analyzed period Germany and France demonstrated the highest values of the integral EDI index, while Turkey and Ukraine had the lowest. The feasibility of using the integral EDI index as an indicator of strategic forecasting of innovative development was substantiated. The originality and practical significance. The originality of the study lies in the development of a comprehensive methodological approach to the integral assessment of the efficiency of innovation diffusion using a mathematically based system of indicators and their weighting coefficients. The practical significance is manifested in the possibility of using the proposed approach to form differentiated strategies of state innovation policy based on the clustering of countries by the level of innovation diffusion efficiency. Conclusions and prospects for further research. The results of the study confirm that the efficiency of innovation diffusion is an crucial indicator of the development potential of socio-economic systems. The developed integral index EDI allows for a comprehensive assessment not only of the country's existing innovation capabilities, but also of the effectiveness of their use. A promising direction for further research is the development of models for forecasting the development potential of socio-economic systems based on indicators of the efficiency of the diffusion of innovations.

Keywords


diffusion of innovations, effectiveness of the diffusion of innovations, socio-economic sys-tems, integral index, cluster analysis, development potential, innovation policy.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32620/cher.2025.2.11

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