Models for industry differentiation in decision-making systems with an application to the Ukrainian economy

Alina Hlushko, Oleksandr Laktionov, Alina Yanko, Oleksandr Isaiev

Abstract


This article is devoted to the study of the problem of using adaptive models of differentiation of sectors of the real sector of the economy as a key component of modern decision support systems (DSS). The subject of the study is models of differentiation of real sectors of the Ukrainian economy for integration into decision support systems to optimize public administration. This research aims to develop and validate adaptive models of industry differentiation into clusters (groups) to improve the effectiveness of decision-making systems applied to the real sector of Ukraine’s economy. The research object is the process of sectoral differentiation, which allows determining the structural features and patterns of economic sector functioning. DSS architecture is proposed that integrates multifactor analysis and machine learning algorithms for automated selection of strategic scenarios. For clustering, we used production volume indicators and the number of strategically important enterprises in Ukraine for the pre-war period (2015–2021), which serve as a benchmark model for comparative analysis. A comparative assessment of the effectiveness of the classical K-means, DBSCAN, and Ensemble model algorithms was conducted with quantitative verification of the results using the Silhouette Score and Davies-Bouldin Score metrics. Empirical analysis showed that the DBSCAN and Ensemble models provide the highest quality of clustering (Silhouette Score 0.8387; Davies-Bouldin Score 0.0777), forming a reliable grouping of economic sectors. DSS module was developed based on the results obtained to form indicative tactical support measures, in particular, infrastructure strengthening of high-potential clusters and structural reorganization of vulnerable ones. Conclusions. The developed models form a universal methodological framework that is suitable for use in different countries, particularly in countries with a “peaceful” economy. DSS specialists can use the research results to identify key sectors of the economy, develop adaptive policies, and increase the stability and competitiveness of economic systems in a dynamic environment.

Keywords


clustering; economic management; public policy; ensemble model; digital solutions; adaptive strategy; decision support system

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32620/reks.2025.3.03

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