RADIOELECTRONIC AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS

Subject research paper is the development of technical systems. The aim is to improve the quality of planning the basic characteristics of technical systems development project. Objective is to analyze the works in the area of risk when planning projects, justified the choice of method of planning the main indicators of the project taking into account the uncertainties and risks, developed and tested method of accounting for risks of interference in the project of development of technical systems on the example of the development of an aircraft engine. Used theoretical methods are: the method of discrete-event simulation for obtaining histograms of cost and time of development of technical systems, the method of calculating the cumulative damage risk events, the model matrix representation as a mathematical device for the presentation and study of interference risks. We obtained the following results. Analysis of existing work and standards in the field of risk management, reviewed the existing information system of risk-based project simulation and variability of the project. On the basis of the detected restriction provides an improved method for the basic parameters of the project planning. The process of identification and the following categories of risk identified: the expectations, cost, appearance of additional work, return. Given the typology of interference risks formalized the concept of additivity, synergy and cannibalization (negative synergy). An information subsystem that preparesinput to project performance simulation taking into account the risks, where the use of the data matrix relationship likelihood of risks and interference effects manifestations of risk events. Developed information subsystem was tested on calculation Show cost and runtime stages of research works on the development of an aircraft engine. Scientific novelty of the results is as follows: improved method of discrete-event simulation account of technical systems development project risks by adding a formalization of interference risks.

technical system; development project; risk management; discrete-event simulation; identification of risks; interference risks; risk probability matrix; consequences of risk matrix

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