DIAGNOSIS OF THE PROBABILITY OF ENTERPRISES BANKRUPTCY

Abstract

Formulation of the problem. In the period of today's complex challenges - the conduct of military operations on the territory of Ukraine, the consequences of the pandemic, an unfavorable investment climate, and others - the detection of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises is of particular importance. Timely detection of the onset of crisis phenomena using various methods and models and the adoption of precautionary measures ensure the avoidance of financial instability in the future. Therefore, conducting a timely diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy is relevant, because there is a growing need for effective financial management in order to achieve the goals set by enterprises in the long term. The purpose of the research is to build a methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises based on various bankruptcy models, based on the conditions of their activity, and to form forecasts of their further development on this basis. The object of the research is the process of constructing a diagnosis of the probability of bankruptcy of aviation industry enterprises. The method of the research - its became modern methods and principles of scientific knowledge, methods and techniques for evaluating bankruptcy diagnostics, tools of financial and economic analysis, models for forecasting further development, which allowed to combine existing approaches for multifaceted assessment of the probability of bankruptcy and identification of factors affecting the unstable activity of enterprises. The hypothesis of the research there was an assumption about the possibility of building a methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises using modern, widely used methods of assessing bankruptcy, financial analysis of the results of operations and forming forecasts of further stable development. The statement of basic materials. The article examines the main stages of diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy of aviation enterprises, which provides an opportunity to determine the factors that generate unstable activity, develop appropriate countermeasures to avoid problem areas, and predict the improvement of development conditions. It is emphasized that each individual enterprise can use its own methods of assessing the probability of bankruptcy, which require the development of further specific anti-crisis measures, but the proposed method allows a comprehensive and thorough approach to the prompt detection and avoidance of crisis phenomena at enterprises. The originality and practical significance of the research is confirmed by the approbation of the proposed methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy at aviation industry enterprises. Conclusions and perspectives of further research. It has been proven that the use of the proposed methodology for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy at enterprises allows recognizing and identifying threats, predicting their consequences, making operational decisions regarding the elimination of threats and adjusting the strategic goals of the enterprise's development. Further research will be aimed at assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in priority sectors of the national economy and developing measures for their recovery activity.