FORECASTS IN BUDGET REGULATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

Budget revenue forecasting is one of the most important problems that arise during its formation. This is especially true for future forecasting. New factors, as well as the latest threats associated with Russia's invasion of the territory of Ukraine, have a significant impact on the development of budgetary relations, the formation of budgets of various levels, as well as the entire economy of the country. The question of forecasting is especially relevant in the context of the restoration of full-fledged medium-term budget planning. The purpose of the article is aimed at defining the concepts of the formation of forecast budgets in Ukraine in the conditions of the restoration of forecast work by the participants of the budget process during the russian aggression. The subject of the study is the peculiarities of the budget revenue forecasting process under the conditions of the risks of martial law. The methodological basis and information base of the research are current scientific and applied research, statistical information. The article uses a number of methods, including analysis, synthesis, comparison and generalization. The main hypothesis of the study was the assumption that the efficiency of economic management and the financial condition of the public sector depend on the quality of budget forecasting and planning, because they are the key to the sustainable development of socio-economic processes. Presenting main material. The criteria for the quality of forecasts and the consequences that are expected in case of inaccuracy of forecasts during medium-term budget forecasting have been established. It was established that the forecast volume of budget revenues (both state and local) depends on the state and trends of economic and social development, stability or instability, effectiveness and progressiveness of the current legislation, forms and methods of organizing work on mobilizing payments to the budget, the level of financial culture and other influencing factors. The modern components of budget forecasting are defined, with clarification of their stages and stages of forecasting work. The originality and practical significance of the research is due to the analysis of positive and negative processes from the point of view of the difficulties of implementing the budget process in the economy at the moment, which made it possible to determine the key provisions that can be taken into account in the process of restoring full-fledged medium-term planning and forecasting in the conditions of war. The conducted theoretical research and the development of practical recommendations will contribute to the stabilization of the forecasting work of state authorities. Conclusions. Forecasting should become an integral part of the process of medium-term budget planning, which will allow to investigate trends in the formation of budget revenues and expenses, to establish factors that should be taken into account in the calculations of budget indicators. The purpose of budget forecasting is to assess the various and most likely options for the development of events in the formation of budget revenues and expenses, which. creates a basis for the selection of goals, which are a reference point in the development of budgets. Modern conditions require the maximum expansion of the field of application of the forecasting process, further improvement of the methodology and methodology of developing forecasts.