Aerospace Technic and Technology

The paper defines and solves the urgent problem of research of long logistics supply chains in developing enterprises. Due to the distribution of the production system as well as to the presence of a large number of remote suppliers of materials, raw materials and components supply plans are threatened. Supply disruptions in their turn may affect the plans of the main production resulting in possible fines, economic losses, and disruptions in supply of manufactured articles to the markets of high-tech and science-intensive products. To study threats and vulnerabilities in supply logistics the risk-oriented approach that considers potential threats using past statistics and expert assessments has been proposed. The objective of the paper is to develop a risk-oriented method to study the existing threats and assess their impact on the vulnerabilities of the logistics chains of the distributed production system. Due to the complexity of the problematic logistics task, the study is conducted in three different stages: development of the method to simulate the risks in long supply chains; identification of possible bottlenecks in the transport system of supply logistics; threat simulation and vulnerability analysis in supply logistics. To model the risks, an agent model is used, in which the accumulation of risks is carried out by passing orders in the transport system. To simulate bottlenecks, a simulation event model is used, in which large queues that occur in the transport system are analyzed. A stochastic simulation model is used to model threats and vulnerabilities. The new scientific results are risk-oriented method of long logistics supply chains simulation; simulation of supply logistics threats and vulnerabilities. Mathematical methods used: risk theory; simulation event modeling; agent modeling; queuing theory. The proposed approach as a set of developed simulation models should be used to plan the supply of developing production.

logistic risks; supply of distributed production; threats and vulnerabilities in transport logistics; simulation modeling; agent modeling

Lindgren, M., Bandhold, H. Scenario Planning The link between future and strategy. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2002. 180 p. DOI: 10.1057/9780230511620.

Melekhin, V. B., Shihalieva, N. S. Teoreticheskie aspekty effektivnogo upravleniya povedeniem sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh ob"ektov v nestabil'noy okruzhayushchey srede [Theoretical aspects of effective management by behavior of socioeconomic objects in unstable environment]. Internet journal "Naukovedenie", July-August 2014, Iss. 4 (23). Available at: https://naukovedenie.ru/PDF/116EVN414.pdf. (accessed 11.02.2021).

Uskenbayeva, R. K., Kurmangaliyeva, B. K., Yedilkhan, D. Situational Management for Process Implementation of Working Operations of the Business Process. 54th Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan (SICE), Hangzhou, China, 2015, pp. 292-297. DOI: 10.1109/SICE.2015.7285573.

Fedorovich, O. E., Pronchakov, Yu. L. Metod formuvannya lohistychnykh transportnykh vza-yemodiy dlya novoho portfelyu zamovlenʹ rozpodileno-ho virtualʹnoho vyrobnytstva [Method of formation of logistic transport interactions for a new portfolio of orders of distributed virtual production]. Radioelektronni i komp'uterni sistemi – Radioelectronic and computer systems, 2020, no. 2 (94), pp. 102-108. DOI: 10.32620/reks.2020.2.09.

Pawluczuk, Ju. K probleme upravleniya proizvodstvennymi resursami predpriyatiya [Problemy zarządzania zasobami produkcyjnymi przedsiębiorstwa]. Zarządzanie : Teoria i praktyka, 2011, no. 1 (3), pp. 17-26.

Paulsen, S., Boens, J. Summary of the Workshop on information and communication technologies supply chain risk management, National Institute of Standarts and Technology, 2012. 21 p.

Kravets, P. O. Dynamichna koordynatsiya stratehiy mulʹtyahentnykh system [Dynamic coordination of multi-agent systems strategies]. Bulletin of the National University "Lviv Polytechnic", 2011, no. 699, pp. 134-144.

Fedorovich, O., Uruskiy O., Pronchakov Yu., Lukhanin M. Method and information technology to research the component architecture of products to justify investments of high-tech enterprise. Radioelektronni i komp'uterni sistemi – Radioelectronic and computer systems, 2021, vol. 1 (97), pp. 150-157. DOI: 10.32620/reks.2021.1.13.

Roszak, M. T. Zarządzanie jakością w praktyce inżynierskiej. Open Access Library, 2014, vol. 1 (31). 150 p.