Aerospace Technic and Technology

Representing the professional activities of the «front-line» aviation operators as an unbroken chain of decisions made and implemented in explicit/implicit forms, the interaction of the components of the current paradigm of the ICAO flight safety concept is placed on “the attitude of aviation personnel to hazardous actions or conditions”, which explains the impact human factor in these decisions. The first part of the studied “attitude” is the main decision-making dominants that determine preposition, indifference, and aversion to risk of violations of standard operating procedures, in particular, aircraft separation standards. Dominants are established by constructing a finite number of points and further analyzing the utility function of the continuum of the separation rate in the process of solving a closed decision problem. A characteristic point of the estimated utility function is the deterministic equivalent of the lottery with a benefit of 0.75. The second component is the level of claims, which are determined by a point on the continuum of the separation norm, which corresponds to the maximum positive leap in the imagination of the air traffic controller in terms of its usefulness (acceptability) from the standpoint of ensuring the proper level of flight safety. The levels of claims adequately characterize self-esteem and are established by constructing a formally unlimited number of points and further analysis of the estimation function of the continuum of the separation norms in the process of solving open decision-making problems. The third component - fuzzy risk assessments, which are determined from the analysis of fuzzy models, are built in accordance with the ICAO scale of hazards on a continuum of separation standards. It has been established that a characteristic point of these models is the intersection point of membership functions belonging to the neighboring terms “significant” and “insignificant” risk. The value of this point is specified using the introduced imperative - criterion. Normalization of all characteristic points has been carried out. The multiplicative approach to obtaining an integrative (holistic) assessment of the attitude towards risk is substantiated and implemented, which contributes both to obtaining a more cautious, relatively additive approach to the results, and to prevent errors of the I-II kind.

flight safety; human factor; decision making; air traffic management; attitude towards violations of aircraft separation standards; key dominants; a level of claims; fuzzy risk assessments; multiplication of partial decision-making indicators

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