EFFICIENCY OF DETERMINATION METHODS OF CONTROLLERS’ PREFERENCES GROUP SYSTEMS BASED ON THE DANGER OF CHARACTERISTIC ERRORS IN THE PROCESS OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
Abstract
The human factor problem should be solved by identifying, qualifying and preventing the erroneous actions of the air traffic controllers. It is presented two schemes explaining the structure of human qualimetry factor and the interaction of the components of the ICAO safety concept, where the main emphasis is on an aviation personnel’ attitude to dangerous actions or conditions, which is revealed by the qualimetry of the decision-making processes’ characteristics: the attitude towards risk (the main dominants and fuzzy assessments), levels of claims, dangerous qualities and preferences systems. The preferences systems are considered as ordered characteristics and indicators of professional activity, which are subjectively compared with the positions of influence on flight safety. The spectrum of n = 21 characteristic errors was formed considering the recommendations of ICAO, EUROCONTROL and accident statistics. It is determined that procedures of collecting the information of errors danger contribute their recognition, memorization, and avoidance: controllers who passed the test according to the proposed method before training made by one third fewer errors in its process. Two criteria for assessing group preferences are realized: the level of consensus (known as Kendall’s coefficient of concordance) and the severity of the ranking, determined by the presence of "related" ranks, for which a special indicator is introduced. It is defined that this indicator should be determined both for the sample of respondents and for the preferences group systems of developed with the chosen method of individual opinions’ aggregation. It was performed the comparative analysis of complex decision-making strategies of effectiveness in the construction of a preferences group systems m = 65 controllers: sum and averaging of ranks, classical criteria (Wald's, Savage's and Laplace's criterion), optimal prediction, applying the non-parametric optimization of the preferences group systems. The non-parametric optimization of the group system of pre-readings was carried out by Kemeny median and it was proved that it was the closest to all the results obtained by other methods and strategies
Keywords
Full Text:
PDF (Русский)References
Reva, A. N., Tumyishev, K. M., Bekmuhambetov A. A. Chelovecheskiy faktor i bezopasnost poletov : (Proaktivnoe issledovanie vliyaniya): monografiya [Human factor and safety : Proactive impact research : monograph]. Almaty, 2006. 242 р.
Reva, O. M., Dmitriiev, S. O., Dmytriiev, O. M. Problemy formuvannia u pilota navychok dolannia naslidkiv vidmov aviatsiinoi tekhniky v rezhymi synkhronnoho heneratora [Problems of forming pilots’ skills of overcoming the consequences of the aviation equipment failure in the synchronous generator mode]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2009, no. 2 (59), pp. 97-102.
Human factor in the system of civil aviation security measures : Doc. ICAO 9808 – AN / 765. Monreal, Kanada, 2002.
Reva, A. N., Vdovychenlo, V.I., Borsuk, S. P., Shtulgin, V. A., Mirzoev, B. M., Mukhtarov, P. Sh., Na-sirov, Sh. Sh. Aktualnyie napravleniya razrabotki pro-aktivnyih modeley resheniya «treugolnika riskov» ICAO [Actual directions of developing proactive models for solving the «risk triangle» ICAO]. Materialy 4 Vseukrainskoi naukovo-tekhnichnoi konferentsii «Su-chasni eneherhetychni ustanovky na transporti, tekhnolohii ta obladnannia dlia yikh obsluhovuvannia» [Proc. 4th Conference «Modern power plants in transport, technologies and equipment for their servicing»]. Kherson, Kherson State Marine Academy Publ., 2013, pp. 334-338. (In Ukraine)
Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S. P. Urakhuvannia liud-skoho chynnyka u proaktyvnomu rozviazanni «trykut-nyka ryzykiv» ICAO [Taking into account the human factor in the proactive solving of the «risk triangle» ІСАО»]. Zbirka materialiv 6 Mizhnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii «Suchasni informatsiini ta innovatsiini tekhnolohii na transporti (MINТT-2014)» [Proc. 6th International scientific-practical conference «Modern information and innovative technologies in transport MINТT-2014)»]. Kherson, Kherson State Marine Academy Publ., 2014, pp. 82-85. (In Ukraine)
Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S. P., Shtulgin, V. A., Mirzoev, B.M., Mukhtarov, P. Sh., Nasirov, Sh. Sh. Stavlennia aviatsiinykh operatoriv «perednoho kraiu» do nebezpechnykh dii abo umov profesiinoi diialnosti – holovnyi chynnyk zabezpechennia bezpeky polotiv [The attitude of the "front edge" aviation operators to dangerous actions or conditions of professional activity - the main factor of flights safety]. Materiali 8 Miz-hnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii «Suchasni informatsiini ta innovatsiini tekhnolohii na transporti (MINТT-2016)» [Proc. 8th International scientific-practical conference «Modern information and innovative technologies in transport MINТT-2015)»]. Kherson, Kherson State Marine Academy Publ., 2016, pp. 90-97. (In Ukraine).
Reva, O. M., Borsuk, S. P., Nasirov, Sh. Sh., Seleznov, G. M. Teoretychne obgruntuvannia systemno-informatsiinoi kvalimetrii liudskoho chynnyka v aero¬navihatsiinykh systemakh [A theoretical grounding of system-informative qualimetry of human factor is in the aeronavigation systems]. Materiali 8 Mizhnarodnoi naukovo-praktychnoi konferentsii «Suchasni enerhety¬chni ustanovky na transporti, tekhnolohii ta obladna¬nnia dlia yikh obsluhovuvannia SEUTTOO-2017» [Proc. 8th International scientific-practical conference «Modern energy installations on transport, technologies and equipment for their maintenance MEITTEM-2017»]. Kherson, Kherson State Marine Academy Publ., 2017, pp. 127-132. (In Ukraine).
Kozeletskiy, Yu. Psihologicheskaya teoriya resheniy [Psychological decision theory]. Moscow, Progress Publ., 1979. 504 p.
Nadezhnost i effektivnost v tehnike : spravochnik v 10 t. T. 3 : Effektivnost tehnicheskih sistem [Reliability and efficiency is in a technique. A reference book is in 10 volumes. V. 3. Efficiency of the technical systems]. Moscow, Mashinostroenie Publ., 1988. 328 p.
Nasyrov, Sh. .Sh. Pilotne vyznachennia sys-tem perevah aviadyspetcheriv Azerbaidzhanu na kha-rakternykh pomylkakh v protsesi upravlinnia povitria-nym rukhom [The pilot definition of the systems of the preferences of Azerbaijan air traffic controllers on characteristic errors in managerial process by an air traffic]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2010, no. 7(74), pp. 124-134.
Minsky, M. Minsky’s frame system theory. Theoretical Issues in Natural Language Processing. Cambridge (Mass.), 1975.
Rieger, C. The commonsense algorithm as a basis for computer models of human memory, inference, belief and contextual language comprehension. Computer Science Technical report. Series, University of Maryland, 1975, no. 373.
Kotik, M. A., Emelyanov, A. M. Oshibki upravleniya [Management errors]. Tallinn, Valgus Publ., 1985. 390 p.
Biriukov, Yu. Yu., Mukhtarov, P. Sh., Nasy-rov, Sh. Sh., Hasanov, I. A. Freimovyi pidkhid do ana-lizu pomylok avia-dyspetcheriv [Framework approach to the analysis of air traffic controllers’ mistakes]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2009, no. 7 (64), pp. 182-187.
Reva, .O M. Nevynitsyn, A. M., Nasirov, Sh. Sh., Shulhin, V. A. Freimy intelektualnoi systemy analizu pomylok aviadyspetcheriv [Frames of the intellectual system of the ATC controller’s errors analyses]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2011, no. 6 (83), pp. 102-110.
Safety Management Manual (SMM) : DOC ICAO 9859 – AN/474. Montreal, Canada, 2013.
Nasirov, Sh. Sh. Bahatokrokova protsedura vyiavlennia statystychno-uzghodzhenoi systemy pere-vah aviadyspetcheriv na mnozhyni kharakternykh pomylok yikh diialnosti [Multi-step procedure for identifying a statistically-agreed system of preference of air traffic controllers on a set of characteristic errors of their activities]. Komunalne hospodarstvo mist : naukovo-tekhnichnyi zbirnyk – Communal economy of cities. Kharkiv, National Academy of Municipal Economy Publ., 2012, vol. 105, pp. 461-475.
Tarasov, V. A., Gerasimov, B. M., Levin, I. A., Korneychuk, V. A. Intellektualnyie sistemyi podderzhki prinyatiya resheniy : Teoriya, sintez, effektivnost [Intellectual systems of decision support: Theory, synthesis, efficiency]. Kiev, MAKIS Publ., 2007. 336 p.
Reva, A. N., Kamyishin, V. V., Nasirov, Sh. Sh., Alekseev, D. S. Teoreticheskie modeli gruppovyih sistem predpochteniy aviadispetcherov, baziruyuschiesya na klassicheskih kriteriyah prinyatiya resheniy [Theoretical models of the group systems of preferences of air traffic controllers, being based on the classic criteria of decision making]. Elmi məcmuələr : Jurnal Milli Aviasiya Akademi-yasinin, Baki, iyul–sentyabr 2012, Baki, 2012, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 37–45.
Reva, A. N., Mirzoev, B. M., Nasirov, Sh. Sh. Nedbay, S. V. Empiricheskie modeli otsenki riska-neopredelennosti gruppovyih sistem predpochteniy aviadispetcherov [Empiric models of risk assessment - uncertainity of the group systems of preferences of air traffic controllers]. Elmi məcmuələr : Jurnal Milli Aviasiya Akademiyasinin, Baki, iyul–sentyabr 2012, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 46–60.
Reva, O. M., Nasirov, Sh. Sh., Lypchansky, V. O. Stratehiia optymalnoho peredbachennia u vyzna-chenni stavlennia aviadyspetcheriv do nebezpek kharakternykh pomylok [Strategy of the optimum foresight in determination of air traffic controler’s attitude towards the danger of characteristic errors]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2017, no. 8 (143), pp. 126-138.
Zadeh, L. A. Ponyatie lingvisticheskoy peremennoy i ego primenenie k prinyatiyu priblizhennyih resheniy [Тhe concept of linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning]. Moscow, Mir Publ., 1976. 165 p.
Orlov, A. I. Organizatsionno-ekonomicheskoe modelirovanie. Chast’ 2. Ekspertnyie otsenki [Organizational and economic modeling. Vol. 2. Expert assessment]. Moscow, Moscow Technical University named after N. E. Bauman Publ., 2011. 486 p.
Reva, O. M., Kamyshyn, V. V., Nasyrov, Sh. Sh. Mediana Kemeni yak hrupova systema perevah aviadyspetcheriv na mnozhyni kharakternykh pomylok [Kemeny’s median as group system of preferences of air traffic controllers on a set of characteristic errors]. Aviacijno-kosmicna tehnika i tehnologia - Aerospace technic and technology, 2012, no. 4 (91), pp. 106-115.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32620/aktt.2018.6.12