RISK ASSESSMENT OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS IN SELECTION OF OPTIONAL MANUFACTURING PROCESSES

M.A. Golovanova

Methodical approaches to solving the pressing problem of risk assessment in management decisions in selection of alternative variants of manufacturing processes for sheet parts production are considered. Complex economic efficiency criterion is proposed for selection of proper variant of manufacturing process. Accounting for uncertainty or risk in decision making is proposed to reduce to interval setting of initial data, taking into account the dynamics of changes in selected indexes in time. Example of damage appraisal from decision on use of manufacturing processes in production of parts by electrohydraulic forming method is submitted. Practical implementation of recommendations makes it possible to manage risks in the activities of enterprises and the most effective management.

Key words: sheet forming, manufacturing process, option, cost-effectiveness, risk, uncertainty, interval value, damage.